ENCUESTA ASISA: ABINADER 38.2%, LEONEL 36.3, ABEL 19%.
Los resultados de la encuesta de la reconocida firma ASISA, presentada el 8 de mayo en el noticiero que dirige el periodista Roberto Cavada abordó los temas de intención de voto, aprobación de la gestión, logros del gobierno así como los temas de identidad partidista y los problemas percibidos por la población dominicana.
SANTO DOMINGO. – Según una encuesta realizada entre el 19 y 23 de abril, si las elecciones presidenciales se celebraran el día de hoy, Luis Abinader obtendría el 38.2%, Leonel Fernández el 36.3%, seguido por Abel Martínez con un 19%. A estos le siguen: David Collado 2.1%, Ramfis Trujillo, 0.5%, Hipólito Mejía 0.4%, Otros 1% y Ninguno 2.5%.
Los resultados de la encuesta indican que la mayoría de los electores piensa que las elecciones se decidirán en una primera vuelta (67%); no obstante en caso de darse una segunda vuelta electoral, se proyecta que Luis Abinader y Leonel Fernández pasarían a la misma (45.1%) y en menor grado, Luis Abinader y Abel Martínez (24.5%) o Abel Martínez y Leonel Fernández (21.6%).
POSIBLES ESCENARIOS SEGUNDA VUELTA
Los resultados de la firma encuestadora internacional indagaron también sobre los potenciales resultados de las elecciones, en caso de llegar a una segunda vuelta electoral en las elecciones del 2024.
La encuestadora midió a los tres candidatos principales – Abinader, Fernández y Martínez- y preguntó a 1,292 potenciales votantes a nivel nacional sobre su posición en ese respecto.
En el primer escenario indagado por Asisa, el 48% afirma que votaría por Leonel Fernández por FP y aliados mientras que Luis Abinader por el PRM y Aliados registra una intención de voto de 37.3%, un 14.7% afirma no sabe o no votaría.
Si la segunda vuelta electoral se realiza entre Luis Abinader y Abel Martínez, el 46% registra que votaría por Luis Abinader por el PRM y Aliados mientras que el 40% lo haría por Abel Martínez y Aliados. Un 13% afirma no votaría por ninguna u otra alternativa.
El estudio realizado a nivel nacional, indica que Luis Abinader exhibe mayor fortaleza en las regiones Cibao, Este y Noroeste mientras que Leonel Fernández
registra su mayor fortaleza en el Gran Santo Domingo y el Sur del país. Abel Martínez en Santiago y el resto del Cibao.
SITUACIÓN DEL PAIS Y PRINCIPALES PROBLEMAS
El reporte presentado por Lilliam Pagán, Directora General de Asisa, afirma que en el país se percibe un tono situacional relativamente negativo: el 57.0% de los dominicanos considera que el país va en ‘dirección equivocada’ mientras que un 41.3% afirma que va en ‘dirección correcta’.
Los resultados del estudio indican que el “costo de los productos y servicios” se señala como el principal problema del país (66%), seguido por la “inseguridad/ delincuencia” (42%) y el “desempleo/ bajos salarios” (33%). En este respecto la investigación indica que cada participante tuvo la opción de mencionar hasta tres problemas. Los problemas se señalan en el mismo orden cuando se habla de cuales problemas lo afectan más de manera personal.
SITUACION ECONÓMICA DEL PAÍS
Otro de los temas que abordó la consulta nacional realizada por Asisa fue el de la percepción de la situación económica actual.
El estudio indica que al pedirle a los votantes valorar la situación del país, el 49% de los entrevistados considera que ‘la situación económica del país ha empeorado en los últimos 12 meses’ o se ha mantenido estática (23%) solo una minoría afirma que es mejor (27%).
De igual manera al evaluar su situación personal/ familiar, se reproduce un panorama semejante, afirmando el 47% que la propia ha empeorado, mientras que el 28% afirma que ha ‘avanzado o mejorado’.
El estudio indica que los votantes muestran poca esperanza de que las cosas mejoren en el país pensando en el próximo año. En ese respecto, el 42% afirma que ve menos posibilidades de mejoría, mientras que un 37% expresa que ve más posibilidades. Un 19% de los potenciales votantes encuestados afirma que se mantendrá igual.
El sondeo explora otros indicadores del tono situacional, que de igual manera presentan saldos negativos, de acuerdo con la opinión de los entrevistados.
Frente a la pregunta ¿Qué tan seguro(a) se siente si sale a caminar solo durante la noche, el 64% responde Nada Seguro. Otro indicador del tono emocional es la permanencia vs. el abandono del país. A la pregunta, si tuviera la oportunidad de mudarse a otro país o quedarse, el 51% afirma que se iría del país.
ABINADER VALORADO POSITIVAMENTE PERO GOBIERNO NO PASA LA PRUEBA
Al indagar entre los potenciales votantes sobre su valoración del presidente Luis Abinader, un 54% expresa una opinión favorable (40% Buena y 14.6% muy buena). En menor medida están los que tienen una opinión Mala (28%) o Muy Mala (15.4%).
Los entrevistados fueron cuestionados sobre la aprobación de la actual gestión de gobierno. En ese tenor la aprobación de la gestión alcanza un 43% de aprobación mientras que la desaprobación alcanza un 55%.
El estudio indica que el nivel de confianza en la resolución de los problemas actuales en el presente periodo de gobierno es bajo: 65% afirma que tiene “Ninguna” o “Poca Confianza” de que los problemas mejoraran en el próximo año. Menor es este indicador cuando los votantes potenciales opinaron sobre la confianza en el actual gabinete; donde un 76.7% afirma que tiene “Ninguna” o “Poca Confianza”.
LOGROS DEL GOBIERNO DE ABINADER Y PRM
La encuesta también indagó sobre la percepción de los principales logros del gobierno. En este sentido: la “activación del turismo” (24.7%), la “no tolerancia a la corrupción” (18.6%), el “Plan de Viviendas” (16.2%) y el Plan de desarrollo turístico Pedernales (13.5%).
Al indagar sobre lo menos positivo del presente gobierno, la encuesta indica que los tres aspectos que alcanzan las mayores menciones (Respuesta múltiple): el “no control precios de los alimentos y servicios” (40%), seguido por “no generar suficientes empleos” (37%) y el Descontrol seguridad ciudadana (20%), mencionados como los principales tres en este sentido.
Al comparar la aprobación de la gestión actual de los principales funcionarios y representantes de la autoridad en la actualidad; La Fiscalía (74% aprueba) y la Procuraduría (59% aprueba) alcanzan los mayores niveles de favorabilidad. La encuesta indica que estas van seguidas por la Junta Central Electoral (57% aprueba), la Vicepresidencia de la República (49%) y los Alcaldes en sus respectivas comunidades (49%).
La encuesta indica que los votantes consideran que la Policía Nacional (65% desaprueba) seguida por el gobernador(a) de sus respectivas provincias (44%); los diputados y senadores de sus respectivas provincias (49% y 47%
respectivamente) son los que gozan con menor nivel de favorabilidad, según el estudio.
SITUACIÓN DE LOS PARTIDOS POLÍTICOS
La encuesta realizada por Asisa a nivel nacional, para la cual se entrevistó un total de 1,292 potenciales votantes dominicanos, también exploró la percepción y posición de los dominicanos con relación a los partidos políticos existentes.
En este sentido, el estudio indica que el 38.1% de los entrevistados afirma inicialmente que tiende a sentir más simpatía \ cercanía por el Partido Revolucionario Moderno (PRM). A este le sigue la Fuerza del Pueblo (FP) con un 29.9%, quien le antecede al Partido de la liberación Dominicana (PLD) que alcanzó un 23.4% de simpatía y cercanía por parte de los entrevistados. El resto de los partidos alcanza un 8.5%.
Sin embargo, en los actuales momentos al indagar entre los votantes si es miembro o simpatizante de esos partidos; el 58% se declara simpatizante, un 17% miembro de algún partido y un 25% como independiente (Ni miembro ni simpatizante).
QUIEN CREE QUE GOBERNARÁ R.D. A PARTIR DE 2024
El estudio midió la potencialidad percibida de los diferentes partidos de gobernar a partir del 2024.
Un 55% afirma que el PRM y la FP tienen un “alto” o “muy alto” potencial de gobernar en el próximo periodo. El PLD se coloca en un tercer lugar con un 40% de potencialidad.
Al mismo tiempo al indagar sobre quién los votantes creen que debe gobernar en el periodo 2024-2028; el 39% afirma que el PRM debe continuar en el poder, seguido por el 35%, que considera la Fuerza del Pueblo debe gobernar.
El 24% considera que el PLD debe volver al poder en el 2024 mientras que el 3% afirma que es otro el partido debe gobernar, según el estudio.
La encuesta tambien indica que el liderazgo opositor se le atribuye en mayor proporción a Leonel Fernández 61% considera que es el principal líder de la oposición, seguido por Abel Martínez a quien lo menciona el 17.6% de los votantes entrevistados para la encuesta.
RECHAZO DE LOS CANDIDATOS / FIGURAS POLITICAS
Al considerar entre todos los posibles candidatos de los diferentes partidos por cual de estos nunca votaría, Luis Abinader se coloca en primer lugar (29.4%), seguido por Leonel Fernández (23.4%) Hipólito Mejía (15.8%) Ramfis Domínguez Trujillo (10%) Abel Martínez (7.7%) Guillermo Moreno (5.3%) David Collado (0.8%) y
Ninguno 7.7%
MUESTRA & METODOLOGÍA
La encuesta fue realizada entre el 19 y el 23 de abril de 2023, con una muestra de 1292 potenciales votantes a nivel nacional, en más de 200 localidades distribuidas en todo el territorio nacional. Se utilizó la técnica de encuestas presenciales en hogares (cara a cara) y un método de muestreo desarrollado por Asisa: “muestreo poli-etápico ultra disperso” con un margen de error +/- 3,9% y nivel de confianza de 95%.
A nivel del hogar se reproduce de manera representativa el universo de votantes en edad, género y zona de residencia. El método de muestreo probabilístico ultra-disperso permite disminuir el error por variabilidad, realizando un máximo de cinco encuestas en cada punto de muestreo, lo que redunda en mayor confianza en los resultados al tener una mayor representatividad geográfica
SOBRE ASISA
Asisa es una agencia multinacional de origen dominicano que realiza estudios de mercado y opinión en más de 50 ciudades del continente. Inició sus operaciones en 1988 y es actualmente una de las principales empresas de su rama en el área del Caribe.
La empresa cuenta con clientes en más de 40 países y realiza estudios de mercado y de opinión pública para más de 150 empresas locales, multinacionales e instituciones del continente.
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