Santo Domingo. República Dominicana. – El gobernador del Banco Central de la República Dominicana (BCRD), Héctor Valdez Albizu, recibió en su despacho a una misión del Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI), encabezada por Emilio Fernández-Corugedo, en cumplimiento del Artículo IV referente a las consultas que anualmente realiza ese organismo internacional a sus países miembros, para pasar balance al desempeño de la economía dominicana durante el 2022 y las perspectivas para el año en curso.
Durante el encuentro, el gobernador Valdez Albizu informó a la misión que la economía dominicana mantuvo un buen dinamismo en el año 2022, al crecer 4.9 %, impulsado por la fortaleza de la demanda interna y de las actividades generadoras de divisas, especialmente el turismo.
Agregó que “los resultados preliminares del primer trimestre del año 2023 muestran que el indicador mensual de actividad económica (IMAE) tuvo una expansión interanual promedio de 1.4 %, consistente con la variación de 0.4 % de enero, 1.8 % de febrero y 2.1 % de marzo de 2023. Este comportamiento en los primeros tres meses del año 2023 está en línea con lo previsto, reflejando la moderación de la demanda interna y el deterioro del entorno internacional en un contexto de mayor incertidumbre”, explicó Valdez Albizu a la misión.
Con respecto al mercado laboral, el gobernador del BCRD estableció que “se han superado los niveles de empleo previos a la pandemia, alcanzando un máximo histórico de 4.8 millones de ocupados. La tasa de desocupación abierta se redujo, al pasar de 8.0 % en el primer trimestre de 2021 hasta 4.8 % al cierre del año 2022, es decir, en 3.2 puntos porcentuales”.
En cuanto al turismo, Valdez Albizu destacó que la actividad de mayor contribución al resultado del producto interno bruto (PIB) en el año 2022 fue hoteles, bares y restaurantes, al registrar una expansión interanual de 24.0 % en su valor agregado real. El gobernador destacó que las perspectivas del sector se mantienen favorables, de manera que “de continuar esta tendencia, se estima una llegada de 7.8 millones de pasajeros no residentes vía aérea al cierre del año 2023”.
El gobernador explicó que, gracias a las medidas de restricción monetaria implementadas desde noviembre del 2021, “la inflación se ha reducido de un máximo de 9.64 % en abril de 2022 a 5.15 % en abril de 2023, esperándose una convergencia al rango meta de 4 % ± 1 % en este mismo mes de mayo. El retorno de la inflación al rango meta otorgaría los espacios necesarios para que el BCRD pondere el momento oportuno para la adopción de medidas que contribuyan a que el crecimiento económico retorne gradualmente a su potencial, preservando la estabilidad macroeconómica”.
Durante la reunión se conversó sobre el dinamismo del sector externo y las actividades generadoras de divisas, principalmente el turismo que generó ingresos por casi US$8,500 millones y un crecimiento de las exportaciones totales de 10.5 % interanual, influenciadas por una expansión de 9.1 % en las de zonas francas. A su vez, el flujo de remesas superó los US$9,800 millones durante el año y la inversión extranjera directa (IED) superó los US$4 mil millones, lo que contribuyó a que la República Dominicana registrara ingresos de divisas en torno a los US$39,000 millones en el año 2022.
Además, se recibieron nuevos flujos de inversión extranjera directa en torno a los US$1 mil millones, apuntando a que la misma superaría nuevamente los US$4 mil millones al cierre del presente año. Por su parte, las importaciones moderaron su crecimiento durante el periodo respondiendo principalmente a la disminución de los precios internacionales de los combustibles.
En cuanto a las reservas internacionales, Valdez Albizu explicó que el mayor flujo de divisas ha permitido que las reservas alcancen los US$16,448.6 millones de dólares al 5 de mayo, representando 13.4 % del PIB y 6.2 meses de importación, ambas por encima de las métricas del FMI.
De su lado, Emilio Fernández-Corugedo, jefe de Misión del FMI, destacó en la reunión que la economía dominicana ha sido la más dinámica y resiliente de las últimas dos décadas en Latinoamérica, gracias a la combinación de buena implementación de política monetaria, un sistema financiero robusto y los sólidos fundamentos macroeconómicos.
Al abrir el ciclo de reuniones que sostendrá el FMI con diversas instituciones dominicanas, el jefe de Misión ponderó que el panorama internacional actual con choques externos es muy complejo, lo cual incide en la mayoría de las economías, provocando una desaceleración en la actividad económica mundial”; no obstante, explicó que la economía dominicana sigue mostrando un panorama positivo, siendo proactiva en la regulación y supervisión del sistema financiero y exhibiendo un buen clima de negocios.
La misión del FMI estuvo integrada, además, por Pamela Beatriz Madrid, Dirk Jan Grolleman, Manuel Rosales Torres, Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov, y Frank Fuentes, representante de República Dominicana ante el FMI.
El gobernador Valdez Albizu estuvo acompañado por la vicegobernadora, Clarissa de la Rocha de Torres; el gerente, Ervin Novas Bello; el subgerente general, Frank Montaño, los subgerentes Joel Tejeda, Ramón González y Máximo Rodríguez, el asesor económico de la Gobernación Julio Andújar, y los directores departamentales Joel González, Brenda Villanueva, José Perdomo, Elina Rosario y Carlos Delgado.
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