Santo Domingo. República Dominicana. El gobernador del Banco Central de la República Dominicana (BCRD), Héctor Valdez Albizu, encabezó el acto de presentación de los libros: ‘Dinámica inflacionaria y política monetaria en República Dominicana’, ‘100 preguntas relevantes para la economía dominicana’ y ‘Series de estudios 2022’, en el marco de la conmemoración de una década desde la adopción del esquema de metas de inflación (EMI) como esquema de política monetaria en la República Dominicana.
Valdez Albizu hizo un breve recuento de los elementos centrales sobre los que se cimenta el marco de la política monetaria en nuestro país: Estabilidad de precios como objetivo principal; tasa de política monetaria como referencia para las tasas de interés del mercado; el proceso de decisiones basado en la evaluación prospectiva de la inflación; y los mecanismos de comunicación que promueven la transparencia y la rendición de cuentas.
El gobernador recordó que “si bien la adopción del esquema de metas de inflación fue formalizada en el año 2012, el BCRD transitó desde el año 2005 una senda de preparación de los aspectos técnicos, apoyado por la asesoría de expertos de los principales bancos centrales de la región y de organismos internacionales como el Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI)”.
Durante este periodo de transición, Valdez Albizu enumeró diferentes logros como “el fortalecimiento de capacidades técnicas del personal basado en estudios de macroeconomía y econometría, el avance en los canales de transmisión de política monetaria y la formalización de un riguroso sistema analítico de pronósticos”, entre otros.
Asimismo, añadió la incorporación de herramientas de política comunicacional, como los comunicados mensuales y los informes de política monetaria, a través de los cuales se explican las decisiones, los razonamientos y la visión del BCRD sobre las proyecciones económicas y el balance de riesgos.
Beneficios para el control de la inflación
Valdez Albizu valoró como exitosa para la economía dominicana la implementación de los esquemas de política monetaria, señalando que “específicamente, la inflación promedio se redujo de 13.0 % en el periodo 2002-2011, a 3.5 % durante la última década, en un contexto en el cual el crecimiento promedio fue de 5.0 %, el más alto de América Latina en ese periodo”.
En el mismo contexto, señaló que “el esquema de metas de inflación continuará consolidándose en años venideros, contribuyendo a una mayor resiliencia de los sectores productivos y a la estabilidad macroeconómica, otorgando las herramientas adecuadas y la credibilidad para sortear exitosamente los desafíos que nos deparan en un futuro”.
En efecto, el gobernador se refirió al informe de Consulta del Artículo IV del FMI en el cual se destaca que, los niveles de credibilidad de nuestro Banco Central son comparables con los países de América Latina que tienen un historial más largo con metas de inflación, como Chile, Perú y Colombia.
Reseña de las obras
El director del Departamento de Programación Monetaria y Estudios Económicos, Joel Augusto González Pantaleón, explicó el contenido de cada una de las obras puestas en circulación por el Banco Central, que fueron elaboradas por técnicos de la institución:
‘Dinámica inflacionaria y política monetaria en República Dominicana’ constituye un compendio de estudios sobre el comportamiento de la inflación doméstica, sus determinantes y su relación con la política monetaria. De manera particular, se identifican los factores internos y externos que inciden sobre la inflación, el impacto de la incertidumbre sobre su volatilidad, el comportamiento de la inflación durante la pandemia, así como sus efectos redistributivos para los hogares, entre otros temas.
“100 preguntas relevantes para la economía dominicana” es una compilación de extractos de artículos publicados en los Informes de Política Monetaria durante la última década, donde se abordan interrogantes para el quehacer económico que han ido surgiendo en intercambios con colegas, analistas y organismos internacionales.
Por último, el documento “Series de Estudios 2022” comprende tres investigaciones que son el resultado de varias rondas de discusiones en foros internos y en seminarios internacionales: “La Política Monetaria ante Choques de Oferta”; “Efecto traspaso de las fluctuaciones del tipo de cambio al nivel de precios luego de adoptado el EMI”; y “Determinantes fundamentales del tipo de cambio bajo EMI”.
Los tres libros están disponibles en la página web del BCRD y pueden descargarse a través del enlace https://www.bancentral.gov.do/Publicaciones/Consulta
Durante la actividad, el gobernador Valdez Albizu estuvo acompañado del miembro de la honorable Junta Monetaria, Arturo Martínez Moya; la vicegobernadora, Clarissa de la Rocha de Torres; el gerente, Ervin Novas Bello; el contralor, José Manuel Taveras Lay; el subgerente general, Frank Montaño; el subgerente de Políticas Monetaria, Cambiaria y Financiera, Joel Tejeda; la subgerente de Sistemas e Innovación Tecnológica, Fabiola Herrera; el asesor económico de la Gobernación, Julio Andújar Scheker; entre otros funcionarios de la institución.
Asistieron a la actividad el superintendente de Pensiones, Francisco Torres, y los economistas Andrés Dauhajre, Jaime Aristy Escuder, Magín Díaz y Rolando Guzmán, entre otros.
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